Thursday, June 13, 2024

Not The 2018 Bear Market, Bitcoin Price Could Hit $20,000 In December

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The Bitcoin price rebounded off the low of its current range and retraced its weekend losses. The cryptocurrency might climb back to the previously lost territory, but uncertainty is king in the current market conditions. 

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $16,400. In the last 24 hours and last week, the price recorded a 2% and 4% profit, respectively. Other cryptocurrencies in the crypto top 10 are following, but Binance Coin (BNB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are leading the bounce. 

Bitcoin price BTC BTCUSDT
BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview

The High And Lows, Is There Hope For The Bitcoin Price?

Investment firm Cumberland posted a market update highlighting the uncertainty in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The nascent asset class is trading in a range after experiencing massive sell pressure amid the collapse of FTX. 

In this uncertain and low liquidity environment, with FTX and its market maker Alameda Research out of the picture, the Bitcoin price will likely trade sideways. During the holiday season, the crypto market will see another decline in liquidity, leading to volatility and crab-like price action. 

However, Cumberland believes there are catalysts to see a move into fresh lows. The FTX collapse triggered a contagion effect across the industry. Many companies and projects relied on the crypto exchange and its venture arm. 

Thus, these companies are vulnerable and might be unable to continue operations. The market is already seeing this effect with BlockFi’s chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. Many wonder how many companies will take a similar measure in the coming weeks. 

If many more crypto projects halt operations, the crypto market might see fresh lows before 2022 ends. Cumberland said the following on the state of “crypto lending 1.0”:

Version 1.0 of the centralized lending industry is effectively finished, and as a result there will be widespread collateral liquidations administered by bankruptcy attorneys over the coming months and years.

Max Pain Price Might Play In Favor Of Bitcoin? 

On the other hand, the bullish case for the Bitcoin price is seeing some momentum on the back of adoption. Ironically, the collapse of FTX is driving many users to take custody of their assets and become less dependent on third-party services. 

In addition, Cumberland sees an enduring bullish trend for stablecoin-based use cases, non-fungible token (NFT) technology, and Ethereum/Polygon as the foundation for Web2 businesses. The firm added:

Against this backdrop, volumes remain explosive; this is not the bear market of 2018 when activity evaporated altogether. Instead, it is evident from our perspective as liquidity providers that the number of entities who care (and transact) is steadily on the rise.

Cumberland believes regulations might drive momentum to either side. If the regulatory landscape for 2023 seems favorable, Bitcoin and others might enjoy sustainable relief into previously lost territory. 

In the options market, as NewsBTC reported, players are betting on buy (call) contracts and sell (put) contracts targeting $30,000 and $10,000, respectively. The max pain for these contracts expiring in December is $20,000. Will BTC trend in that direction?

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BTC Options’ Open Interest for the December 30th expiry. Source: Deribit

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